Arsenal Transfer Rumor: David Raya

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Completely out of the blue, but the more I think about it, the more I like it.

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Arsenal are considering a shock transfer move for Brentford goalkeeper David Raya, reports David Ornstein. The Spanish international seems a hot commodity this summer, with Tottenham reportedly having agreed to personal terms with him before signing Guglielmo Vicario from Empoli and Bayern Munich looking to loan him in. Brentford would prefer a straight sale however, Raya’s contract expires next summer. The Athletic reports the Bees would be open to the loan if Raya were to sign an extension before heading out.

It’s not the first time the Gunners have been linked with Raya. He was on Arsenal’s shortlist of keepers a few summers ago before the club ultimately moved for Aaron Ramsdale. Raya, 27, worked with Arsenal goalkeeper coach Inaki Cana at Brentford before the goalkeeper coach joined Mikel Arteta’s staff..

Brentford have reportedly slapped a £40M price tag on their Spanish keeper.

Arsenal’s interest in David Raya raises two threshold questions for me:

I think David Raya is better than Aaron Ramsdale right now. At the very least, he is more consistent. He may not make as many incredible saves, but he also doesn’t concede as many stinkers. Raya’s distribution is excellent, at least as good as Ramsdale’s.

Raya was the fourth best shot-stopper in the Premier League last season, keeping out nearly 6 more goals than you’d expect from a heavy volume of shots (205 - the most of any keeper on the list). Ramsdale was the 12th best shot-stopper, allowing a little over one goal more than you’d expect from the 138 shots he faced.

For reference, Bernd Leno was actually the top keeper in the Premier League on goals prevented, keeping out nearly 11.5 more goals than expected. Alisson (10.5) was second, although his goals prevented rate was slightly better than Leno’s. If you have a subscription to The Athletic, take a look at the GK comparison chart in their article.

Goalkeeper stats are difficult to parse through because so much of a keeper’s performance is tied to the defense in front of him. Arsenal’s defense, especially with a healthy William Saliba, was excellent, much better than Brentford’s.

If you were to divide Premier League goalkeepers into tiers, Alisson and Ederson are in a class of their own. Ederson didn’t have a great year stopping shots, but his ball skills and distribution are second to none. Raya is towards the top of the second tier. If Ramsdale makes the second tier, he’s at the bottom. For me, he just barely makes the cut for the second tier if you combine his two years at Arsenal — he was better in ‘21-’22 than in ‘22-’23. But it would be tough to argue with sticking him at the top of the third tier.

2. Is it worth Arsenal spending big money on a keeper with Ramsdale in the fold?

It’s fair to say that Raya is an upgrade on Aaron Ramsdale. How much of one and whether that incremental improvement is worth £40M + the potential opportunity cost of upgrading elsewhere is a difficult question. Of course, there might not be any opportunity cost to Arsenal. The club might be able to spend on Raya and, say, another winger. But with £200M+ spent already this summer, that seems somewhat unlikely.

Arsenal are in the fortunate position of having a pretty darn good squad. They’ve already taken care of the two spots that were clearly due for an upgrade this summer — a second CDM and left 8. So there aren’t many opportunities available to the club for big jumps in quality anywhere on the roster, at least not in the first XI. Any improvement they make is going to be a marginal one / smaller in absolute size, almost necessarily.

The more I think about it, second keeper is probably the “weakest” spot on the Arsenal roster. No offense to Matt Turner, a fine goalkeeper who would do well at a club like Nottingham Forest (where he’s recently been linked), but it’s clear that Mikel Arteta does not trust him to start a match of consequence. The difference from Ramsdale to Turner is pronounced, especially when it comes to distribution. Given the way Mikel Arteta wants to progress the ball out of the back and the passing (and dribbling) skill required to do that, Turner doesn’t fit the bill. If anything were to happen to Ramsdale and Turner was forced into action, the entire level of the squad would drop precipitously.

Right now, Aaron Ramsdale is the clear and unquestioned #1 keeper at Arsenal. Matt Turner isn’t supplanting him for any reason other than injury. Were Arsenal to buy David Raya, I think it would still be Ramsdale’s job to lose, but if his form dipped, Mikel Arteta would have another keeper that he’d feel more than comfortable switching to quickly. Plus, the competition would be good for both. Keeper is the only position at the club currently where there isn’t a really good backup to push the starter.

Raya also qualifies as a homegrown player. Arsenal aren’t expected to have issues with the homegrown player rules after the likely outgoing sales, but exchanging a non-homegrown player (Turner) for a homegrown one (Raya) doesn’t hurt, especially at a spot like keeper.

The more I think about the potential purchase, examine David Raya’s strengths and weaknesses, and consider how Arsenal might further improve their squad, the more I like the move. Raya is a clear and significant upgrade on Matt Turner that would give Mikel Arteta 1A and 1B options in goal.

Based on last year’s performances, Raya is currently a better keeper than Ramsdale, even if I think that Ramsdale still has the higher ceiling — the first half of his first season at the club was spectacular. Right now, Raya’s floor is higher. He’s a safer option at keeper, less prone to backbreaking mistakes.

Remember, Ramsdale is still just 24 and goalkeepers have slower development curves. To that point, when Arsenal were linked with Raya two years ago, I wasn’t impressed. He has improved dramatically from age 25 to 27. He’d be a solid purchase.